Wednesday, January 25, 2012

A New Team, After The All Star Break

The Edmonton Oilers head into the All Star break, currently sitting in 29th place in the NHL. Are the Edmonton Oilers a sure-fire pick to finish 29th or worse? I don't think so. Trades or no trades, there will be a better, healthier and stronger Edmonton Oilers team emerging from the All Star break.

Returning will be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Not only a catalyst on the power-play, but a scoring opportunity producer who will re-join the Edmonton Oilers well-rested and rejuvenated. Along with Jordan Eberle, I expect Nugent-Hopkins to have a strong finish to the season and return to a pace that will see him average a point-per-game over the remainder of the season.

With the return of Nugent-Hopkins to the line-up, this gives the Edmonton Oilers a second line that can produce. This might be a good time to place Taylor Hall alongside Sam Gagner and have these two develop some kind chemistry for the remainder of the season. One of two things will happen, Gagner will excel or Gagner will solidify the notion that the Oilers still need a second line center.  

With Sam Gagner playing on the second line, it is now time to place Shawn Horcoff and Eric Belanger in their proper roles. Horcoff, third line center who kills penalties. Belanger, fourth line center who kills penalties. This leaves Anton Lander as the odd man out. It is time to re-assign Lander down to OKC and give him the minutes that a developing player needs, especially one who is still becoming accustomed to the North American game.

So, the forwards lines become more stable, productive and as a result much better. How about the defense?

Although not 100%, an 80% Ryan Whitney is a welcome sight to a defense that has had significant stretches without him in the line-up. Against the Vancouver Canucks, Whitney did not look out of place and played a good game.  If all goes well, Whitney slowly improves and is in the Oilers line-up for the remainder of the season then the effectiveness of the Edmonton Oilers' defensive game changes for the better.

Also missing from the Oilers line-up, for long stretches of time, have been Cam Barker and Tom Gilbert.

For some odd reason, Cam Barker was not garnering any respect from the Edmonton Oilers' faithful. With me, I thought he was doing a good job. Not a flashy player, Barker just got things done. He was a calming presence in his own end and more often than not, made the easy and smart play. If you were expecting Barker to come in and pick up 45 points, well then of course you were going to be disappointed and were also going to ignore/miss the not-so obvious aspects of Barker's game.

Tom Gilbert has emerged as a bona-fide second unit defensemen. While playing the role of top D-men, during Ryan Whitney's stretches of recovery, Gilbert has done an impressive job. Prior to his injury, Gilbert was logging 23:41 of ice-time per game, playing in all situations and never looked out of place in doing so.

Shortly after the All Star game, all three defensemen are expected to be in the line-up. The Edmonton Oilers defense could look like this: Whitney/Barker - Gilbert/Smid - Potter/Sutton with Theo Peckham serving the role of a seventh defensemen. In all likelihood, Jeff Petry is returned to OKC. This is, of course, if there are no trades made in the immediate future.

At the bottom of the Standings are the Columbus Blue Jackets, 8 points behind the Edmonton Oilers. With a healthy line-up, there is no chance of the Oilers falling down to 30th. Just ahead of the Edmonton Oilers are six teams, within 5 points of reach. The Oilers may not catch them all, but they will certainly catch a few of them. I predict, if the stars align and the Oilers remain healthy, that the Edmonton Oilers will finish the season in 26th place.

Previous Blog ------> Oilers vs Canucks Post Game Rant

6 comments:

  1. 28th is better than 26th as far as the lottery goes. And you'd keep Theo over Petry? Come on. Belanger should be the odd man out but we lack centres.

    1. Smyth-Nuge-Ebs
    2. Hall-Gags-Hem
    3. Jones-Horc-Paaj
    4. Hord-Bel-Eager (Lander)

    1. Whit-Bark
    2. Gilb-Smid
    3. Pot-Sut (Petry)

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  2. I would keep Theo over Petry. Petry can play 26 minutes a game in OKC and Peckham can eat popcorn while watching the Oilers play. OKC is not a demotion, OKC is a development league and in OKC Petry will play meaningful minutes, meaningful games and participate in the playoffs. OKC is a winning team, currently #1 in the AHL in the standings by four points. Petry playing anything less than top 4 minutes is a waste. It is not about now, it is about the future.

    The same reasoning that I used for Petry also applies to Anton Lander.

    Darren, 26th is reasonable and definitely attainable. It is not too far fetch to think that the Edmonton Oilers, when healthy, can catch a team that is only 4 points ahead them at this point. Not too many teams can succeed with stretches of injuries to three of their top four defensemen and to their best three forwards. We will see a much improved Oilers squad.

    ReplyDelete
  3. "If you were expecting Barker to come in and pick up 45 points, well then of course you were going to be disappointed and were also going to ignore/miss the not-so obvious aspects of Barker's game."

    What about the "not-so obvious aspect" of having the worst scoring chance differential (per 60) on the entire team.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Well, if we want to use stats ... +3. Is he a defensemen of a forward? His role was not to create, but to prevent. I suspect Jason Smith's scoring chance differential would have been rather low, would this make him a bad defensemen.

    I think there is little denying that the Oilers are a better team with Barker in the line-up than not in the line-up. He is better than Potter, Sutton and Peckham.

    ReplyDelete
  5. According to Jim Matheson, there is a distinct possibility that Jeff Petry would have to clear waivers. If this is the case, and well all know that he would not clear waivers, Petry stays.

    ReplyDelete

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